April 29. Curve-flattening is complete and we are now over the hill and in the process of steepening the descent. We are trying to accelerate the reduction in confirmed cases and in deaths, which have now exceeded 60,000.
Unfortunately, we are still depending on social distancing, which is extremely costly. If we were to stop distancing, the virus would immediately return, unless … Unless we did something smarter. Like several other countries have done.
We should get organized. Here’s a mind-blowing video on how South Korea (a democracy) has done it.
A Problem with Curve Flattening
Curve flattening is essential to save lives, prevent horrendous working conditions for doctors and nurses, and to prevent social chaos.
However, there is one relatively small but important downside to success. It means that not a very large fraction of the population will become immune. So we won’t have much “herd immunity.”
Again, this means we must learn to stop the spread of the virus while we reopen the economy. Until we get a vaccine or an extremely effective drug (keep an eye on this one), we need to adopt what has worked in other countries — testing, contact tracing, and individual quarantining.
This would be 100 times less disruptive for the economy. So why aren’t we doing this? The South Korean’s did this months ago and saved their economy.
Ripped Apart
