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Rush Hands Indiana to Clinton
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How Operation Chaos Handed Indiana to Clinton:
Data from the CNN Exit Poll:
10% of the voters in the Democratic primary were Republican.
Of these 54% voted for Clinton and 46% voted for Obama.
That means 5.4% of the total votes were Republicans voting for Clinton.
She got 51% of the total vote.
5.4% / 51% = 10.6% of Clinton's vote total.
Not all of this was due to Op. Chaos.
Before Operation Chaos, Clinton was getting less than half as many Republican votes as Obama, but in the 5 primaries with data, after Chaos started, Clinton averaged more Republican votes than Obama.
Clinton got 46% as many before Chaos, and 112% as many after Chaos.
If we figure she would have continued to get 46% as many without Rush, then she would have gotten 2.2% of the total votes, and 4.4% of her votes from Republicans instead of 5.4 and 10.6% as she did. This would have cost here 40,785 votes in Indiana, and she would have lost with 49% to Obama's 51% of the vote. This would have cost her about 3 delegates.
You can see all the data and calculations here: Operation Chaos in a Google on-line spreadsheet.
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http://zfacts.com/p/1000.html | 01/18/12 07:24 GMT
Modified: Thu, 08 May 2008 04:47:41 GMT
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