July 24, 2009. Alan Blinder, one of the best macro economists, says in the Wall St. J. that he's pretty sure the worst recession since 1938 ended on June 30. (Alan Blinder) Technically speaking. That's the end of the the second quarter, and, in the third quarter, GDP should be up a bit. But companies won't start hiring till they've bounced back quite a bit, so the number of jobs will keep falling behind population growth for perhaps a year. And unemployment will keep rising, but that should level off as the unemployed get discouraged and find other things to do.