Clinton's Edge in Indiana

May 8, 2008. Republicans and "race-matters" Democrats--that's who. Specifically, Rush-Limbaugh Republicans and Democrats who tell CNN that the "race of the candidate was important to them." I'll call these admitted racists (ARs). They make up only about 5.5% of the Indiana Democrats, so they are only important for Hillary's white edge. She and Obama have about equally-broad non-racist white support.

15.4% of Clinton's votes came from ARs (not all of them Democrats).

10.7% of Clinton's votes came from Republicans.

Eliminating the likely overlaps, this comes to:

23.4% came from Republicans (for Chaos) or Democratic ARs.

If these votes were eliminated the white vote would have been 53% (not 60%) for Clinton. If a few Democrats voted for her for racist reasons and did not tell CNN, then her remaining 3% edge in Indiana would likely disappear. more...

From the CNN Exit Poll

for the Indiana Democratic Primary, we learn:
("voters" means voters in the Dem primary)

10% of voters were white and said the "race of the candidate was important to them."
78% of these voted for Clinton.
(The others may have thought it was time we had a half-black candidate.)
This means 7.8% of all voters were admitted racists (ARs) for Clinton.
She got 50.6% of the vote, so 15.4% of her voters were ARs.

10% of the voters were Republican.
56% of these voted for Clinton (mostly due to Limbaugh's Operation Chaos).
5.6% of all voters were Clinton Republicans.
10.7 of Clinton's voters were Republican.

Of the 77% white voters, 10% said "race of candidate important," so only about 1 in 8 say this. If we assume Republicans are about twice as likely to say this, then 1/4 of them say it. (This may be an overestimate, because what's important to them is Democratic chaos.)

This means 1/4 of the Republicans for Clinton were already counted in the 15.4% ARs,
so to avoid double counting, just add on 3/4 of the Republicans for Clinton.
That means 23.4% of Clinton's vote was either Republicans or ARs.

Without them, the white vote would have been 53% Clinton, 47% Obama. If there are a few whites that vote for racist reasons and don't admit it, then Clinton's edge is entirely due to the Republicans following Operation Chaos and some racist white Democrats.

We can be fairly sure that the Republicans voting for Clinton — ARs or not — are not going to vote for any Democratic candidate in the fall. That leaves only about 5.5% of Indiana Democrats who are ARs who might be "in play" for the Democratic candidate in November. Perhaps Clinton is the only Democrat who can get their vote in November. But that 5.5% is more than balanced by the risks of losing many younger voters and black voters if the Democrats reject them to court the ARs. The way to overcome this problem is not by stirring up more racism.

Google spreadsheet with data and calculations.

http://zfacts.com/p/1001.html | 01/18/12 07:19 GMT
Modified: Sat, 10 May 2008 03:23:13 GMT