Welcome to zFacts!  Fair, Not Balanced.

Rarely are two sides equally right, and “balanced” has come to mean magnifying minor faults on one side to balance fatal flaws on the other. ZFact takes on the hard left, hard right and mushy middle—with hard facts.

Democrats have a 42% Chance at the Senate


Nate Silver, the best election forecaster ever, gives the Democrats a 42.0% chance of controlling the Senate. (Sept 5, it was 36.6%.) In other words, it really could happen if Dems go out and vote. But it's still a bit of a long shot. The orange bars in the graph show Republican chances of ending up with 51, 52, 53, ... seats. The reasons for this may not be what you think. They have little to do with popular theories. [Read more...]

Obama’s ISIS Strategy

 It is now clear why Obama recently said he had no ISIS strategy. Ten Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia just announced they would join the US in a strategy to destroy ISIS. It's much harder to bring players like that on board if you announce that you've decided everything and just want them to join you and do what you've decided needs doing. So in fact he had a much more subtle strategy than the hard left and hard right could imagine, and the first step was to gain crucial support from the Arabs.

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If Mitch McConnell Rules the Senate …


Then McConnell will control the purse strings, so watch out. "We're going to go after them on health care, the Environmental Protection Agency ... across the board," McConnell told a private June strategy session of deep-pocket Republican billionaire donors, convened by the Koch brothers. With simple majorities in the House and the Senate, Republicans could pass any tax legislation, cut funds for any environmental programs, or even [Read more...]

Who are the Job Creators?

Republican and Democratic Job Creation

In a recession, there are two approaches to jobs: (1) stimulus and (2) cutting wages. Democrats favor #1 and Republicans #2. Wage-cutting can take the form of cutting the minimum wage (Michele Bachmann), busting unions (Ronald Reagan), or just letting high unemployment slowly force people to accept lower wages. The idea is that business will hire more workers if they are cheaper. That's true when business is booming, but not when they can't sell what they've already manufactured. [Read more...]

A Super PAC to End All Super PACs

Lawrence-Lessig The Mayday PAC is not your average super PAC. Started on May 1, 2014 by Harvard Law Prof and political activist Lawrence Lessig, its goal is to end all super PACs in 2017. "Embrace the irony." 

His first fundraiser brought in $1.1 million in 13 days. Then he shot for another $5 million by July 4. On July 3 he was still $1.5 million short. We knew our $3.5 million in pledges would all be voided and our credit cards not charged if he didn't make it. The result was a tremendous surge of support and activity. Mayday hit $5.5 million by the end of Independence Day. Here's what's next. [Read more...]

Hope for Afghanistan?

Ashraf Ghani

On May 5, eight pro-US candidates squared off, and the two big winners were the most pro-US. Not what the hard left would have you think. On June 15, Ashraf Ghani appeared to trounce Abdulah Abdulah, but there was much fraud. All parties are desperate to get a power-sharing agreement in place before the recount finishes in a few days. Without that, the loser may well tear the country apart. That would be a pity, because they are not far apart and real power-sharing would [Read more...]

ZFacts Is Back

You can't see much of it, but I've just upgraded zFacts from geeky Drupal to with-it WordPress. That's a big commitment and I intend to keep the site up to date after this election (unlike after Nov. 2012). It will be particularly active for the next couple of months, so stay tuned, and here's hoping today's launch avoids catastrophe. [Read more...]