Job Forecasts: Three Wrong, One Dismal

Each year, the President's Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) predicts the trend in employment levels over the next few years. These predictions have been overly optimistic, as Paul Krugman

made clear.

The first prediction, made after the first tax cut, which was advertised as providing more jobs, is most optimistic and predicts a return almost to the long-term trend line. The next one was lower by 2.8 million in its prediction for 2008. The next dropped another 2.2 million jobs—in spite of the 2003 tax-cut which the CEA claimed would add 1.4 million jobs by the start of 2005. The final prediction made in November 2004 and publish in the 2005 Economic Report of the President, dropped a wopping 3.3 million jobs from the previous prediction for 2008, Bush's final year.

In just 3 year from Nov. 2001 to Nov. 2004, the CEA dropped 8.3 million payroll jobs from its forecast 2008 value, in spite of the suppose 1.4 million job bonus of the 2003 tax cut. How could they have been so far off? And, what does this turn of event mean?

The President's advisors are telling us something has gone terribly wrong, and it looks permanent. zFact plans to investigate the outsourcing of jobs and the loss of manufacturing jobs, especially to Japan as possible explanations.

Also See:
Tax-Cut Jobs?: The administration claimed the 2003 tax cut would generate 1.4 million new jobs by the election--on top of the 5.7 million increase predicted on the basis of the 2001 tax cut. See what happened.

http://zfacts.com/p/538.html | 01/18/12 07:25 GMT
Modified: Mon, 17 Apr 2006 17:51:21 GMT