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Unemployment, Job Loss and Creation |
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A Permanent Job Loss?
No one is talking, but the White House saw it. Each year the President's Council of Economic Advisers predicts the number of payroll jobs several years out. In 2001 they predicted 151.7 million for 2010, then in each of the next three years they ratcheted back their prediction by roughly 3 million and in Nov. 2004 (for the 2005 Report), they predicted only 142.5 million. That's 9.2 million less.
They must have been shocked every year. Three million is three times the job growth since Bush took office and to have that many disappear every year relative to your last prediction is astounding. Doubly astounding when you've been predicting a flood of new tax-cut jobs! The real problem is not the bad predictions, it's the missing jobs. Sure, people have found other jobs, gone back to school, or dropped out, but payroll jobs are on average the better jobs. This is a real loss, and if you believe the White House predictions, it looks permanent.
The consequence of the job gap is falling real wages.
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Job Watch: Number of payroll job compared to the Administration prediction. Job growth has returned to normal, relative to population, but 7.2 million are still missing relative to normal growth.
Slow Recovery? Compared with the previous recession under Bush I, we are 2.6 million jobs behind and losing ground every month.
Surprised Again: The President's Counsel of Economic Advisors has reduced its prediction of payroll jobs by over 8 million in just three years in spite of the 2003 tax cut which was supposed to create 1.4 million more jobs—it didn't.
Non-Payroll Jobs: Payroll jobs are down, but non-payroll jobs are up!? These have replaced some of the 7 million missing payroll jobs. In other cases workers are unemployed or have given up looking for work.
Unemployment: Lack of job growth has resulted in workers leaving the labor force which reduces unemployment but doesn't solve the problem.
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http://zfacts.com/p/320.html | 01/18/12 07:22 GMT
Modified: Sat, 20 Jan 2007 00:50:18 GMT
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