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NOAA on Hurricanes and Global Warming |
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Telling the truth, but not the whole truth
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NOAA's 2005 article on hurricanes and global warming link PDF is accurate as far as it goes, but appears to hide the ball on the essential question: will global warming increase the number and intensity of hurricanes?
In fact, NOAA’s 2007 Question and Answer on precisely this topic provides this direct answer:
While it is difficult to tell if global warming has already caused such an increase, that is also likely the case. If you were to talk to NOAA spokespeople directly, you could ask them point blank: "Has NOAA ruled out the possibility that global warming has warmed the tropical waters that spawn Atlantic hurricanes?" An honest answer is no. Then you could ask: "If the waters have been warmed even a little by global warming, wouldn't that have to contribute somewhat to hurricane formation, even though the multi-decadal cycle is the main controlling factor?" Logic dictates a “yes” answer.
Here are statements from the 2005 article, and discussion of each.
"NOAA attributes this increased activity to natural occurring cycles in tropical climate patterns near the equator."
True. But this naturally occurring cycle now has a higher temperature “base” level due to global warming.
"NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse warming."
True. That signal is causing the increase, and that signal is not related to greenhouse warming—it was here long before. NOAA’s paper doesn’t mention the likelihood that the multi-decadal cycle is taking a place at a higher base temperature as a result of global warming.
"Above-normal hurricane seasons ... result from ... :
* Warm Ocean Waters: Hurricanes need warm ocean waters to strengthen and sustain them."
True. In fact, it is important that this be mentioned so NOAA cannot be accused of leaving out the fact that warmer ocean waters are the primary key to increased hurricane activity. Of course, warmer ocean waters are likely to be due to the combination of the effects of the multi-decadal signal and global warming. Again, NOAA does not mention this.
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"Research by NOAA scientists ... shows that [the multi-decadal] signal accounts for the entire inter-related set of conditions that controls hurricane activity for decades at a time."
True, but only because of the reference to “decades at a time.” The signal controls the "entire inter-related set of conditions" for decades at a time, but it does not account for longer-term effects. For example, when the earth cools naturally, even to the point of an ice age, the hurricane cycle changes—the number and strength of hurricanes is reduced. And if the sun got hotter we would expect more hurricanes. Over longer periods other factors—such as the overall temperature—also control hurricane activity.
"Their study also shows that the tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the observed multi-decadal fluctuations in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1950."
True, again because the reference is to “multi-decadal fluctuations.” But the current cycle is far more intense than the last one, and no one can rule out anthropogenic global warming as a factor in the increased strength.
"That study also showed the recent increase in hurricane activity is nothing new. In fact, ‘Atlantic Ocean temperature data shows that this is just the latest manifestation of a long-running hurricane cycle that dates back to at least 1870’"
No question about it. These cycles have probably been going for thousands of years, but you can bet they were weaker during the little ice age of the 1500's and will be stronger yet when the climate gets hotter. Again, NOAA appears to prefer to omit such inferences.
NOAA’s omissions are standard tricks for using scientific language in a way that deceives the public while making it impossible for other scientists to say it is wrong.
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http://zfacts.com/p/232.html | 01/18/12 07:18 GMT
Modified: Thu, 03 Apr 2008 17:58:49 GMT
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