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Hurricanes are sensitive to sea temperature |
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Why this makes sense
The data (blue dots in graph below) show that hurricane energy increases very quickly with sea temperature. This is not surprising, though until Dr. Kerry's recent publication there have been no data accurate enough to make this graph. Notice that from left to right the sea temperature only changes by 1° C (1.8° F). This is very little over the 60 year period of the data, but it has a large impact.
Everyone agrees hurricanes were a lot worse in the 1940's than in the 1970's and they are a lot worse again now. The water was only slightly cooler in the 1970's and that is the only known reason for the change. The statistical analysis proves water temperature is a primary contributor to these changes, and that its impact is large.
How else do we know warmer water makes hurricanes worse? First, read any report from NOAA.gov about Rita or any other hurricane and it will say "it's about to go over some warm water and will intensify," or "it's going to hit cooler water and slow down." That's why hurricanes never start up near Boston.
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Data from Dr. Kerry Emanuel have been updated since the publication of his letter in Nature. Statistical analysis by Dr. Stoft of zFacts.com.
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http://zfacts.com/p/124.html | 01/18/12 07:18 GMT
Modified: Thu, 03 Apr 2008 18:00:39 GMT
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