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Coping with Crumbling States—Wurmser |
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Coping with Crumbling States: A Western and Israeli
Balance-of-Power Strategy for the Levant, by David Wurmser
Full paper as PDF (30p, 97k) from http://www.israeleconomy.org/strat2.htm
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Analysis of Report: Reasons for Iraq War
This 30-page report by Wurmser (later Cheney’s Mid-East Adviser) argues that the overthrow of Saddam is the most central issue for Israel’s security. Not that Saddam is a danger to Israel, but if Syria and Iran, Israel’s two most dangerous enemies, carve up Iraq, they will threaten Israel more. On the other hand, if Israel can help Jordan oust Saddam and gain the “prize,” Israel’s security will increase.
The report is a fuller explanation of the need to “remove Saddam” expressed in the earlier Clean Break ” report (with Feith and Perle). These three ended up working for Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz, so the logic of this report explains why the neocon’s worked diligently from early 1998 to 2001 to convince the U.S. to help overthrow Saddam.
There is nothing in this report about Saddam having WMD or sponsoring terrorism. Democracy is mentioned only twice, first to note the “weakness of democracy and pluralism in the Arab world,” and second King Hussein of Jordan's instruction to “Spare no effort to end the suffering of the Iraqi people and enable them to enjoy pluralism and democracy.” Wurmser does not comment on this instruction.
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Summary and Excerpts: [zFacts' comments in []s ]
[Definition: Levant = Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, part of Turkey.]
[The paper seeks to convince Israel and the U.S. to side with Jordan. Given the character of Syria's Baathist regime, zFacts is entirely sympathetic.]
The Problem:
"Iraq tried to take over, Kuwait — a catastrophic mistake that accelerated Iraq’s descent into internal chaos. ... ... Iraq, a nation of 18 million, occupies some of the most strategically important and well-endowed territories of the Middle East. ... Thus, whoever inherits Iraq dominates the entire Levant strategically."
[Syria and Jordan are also viewed as crumbling states, not just Iraq.]
"Iraq's future will profoundly affect the strategic balance in the Middle East. The battle to dominate and define Iraq is, the battle to dominate the balance of power in the Levant over the long run. Syria understands this ... Jordan has realized the strategic significance of the circumstance and put forward its Hashemite option for Iraq.
[The paper is wholely concerned with the Syria vs. Jordan struggle to topple Saddam and control a post-Saddam Iraq.]
Until now, Syria and Iran have worked together ... Jordan's Hashemite option will surely trigger a fierce Syrian-Jordanian competition. ... The United States, Israel, and Turkey should pay particular attention to this circumstance in formulating an approach to the Levant."
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The Two Alternatives:
"If Syria prevails, then Jordan would be isolated and King Hussein’s regime besieged. Tribal alliances extending across the Levant would submit to Syrian diktat. Jordan, along with the rest of the Levant, would first come under Syria’s sway, and then later be swept up by Syria’s eventual crumbling. Most of the Levant then will crumble into neo-feudalism." ... and King Hussein of Jordan will be in great danger having "earned the enmity of the most dangerous regimes in the Middle East: Asad’s [Syria], Saddam’s [Iraq], and Rafsanjani’s [Iran]."
"If Jordan wins, then Syria would be isolated and surrounded by a new pro-western Jordanian-Israeli-Iraqi-Turkish bloc, the first of which can help contain and manage
(through its more solid and traditional regime) the scope of the coming chaos in Iraq and most probably in Syria. ... ... Close cooperation between Israel and Jordan could undermine Syria’s pressure on Israel’s northern border as the local Shia are weaned from Hizballah’s domination."
[Wurmser recommends:]
"the United States and Israel can use this competition over Iraq to improve the regional balance of power" ... ... The United States must support moves to challenge Syria’s position in Lebanon, to undermine Iran, to ensure Turkey’s long-term pro-Western tilt and integration into Europe, to support Jordan’s efforts in Iraq, and to understand better the dynamics of Saudi succession as they relate to its foreign policy."
[Within the context of this paper, what Wurmser wants is support from the U.S. and Israel for Jordan's backing of the INC (Iraqi National Congress) and others attempting to overthrow Saddam.]
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http://zfacts.com/p/140.html | 01/18/12 07:20 GMT
Modified: Mon, 17 Apr 2006 18:32:55 GMT
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