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Wars: Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan
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Afghanistan:
U.S. Military budget = $65 B/year.
GDP = $12.5 B/year. Average income = less than $1/day (includes the very wealthy.)
Situation: Southwest largely controlled by Taliban, produces 98% of opium, $1B/year at the farm gate. National Police are massively corrupt in that area. Powerful drug lords make more from opium than does the Taliban.
Solution: Wheat. Even the poorest farmers in the top opium province produce 25% wheat. It is the main opium competitor. But Afghanistan imports half its wheat. Raise the price of wheat to 6 times normal ($1.50/kilo). Buy all available wheat, mill it to flour and subsidize the flour. Maintain other programs—this is not a silver bullet, but it's a game changer.
Benefits: Will cut opium production rapidly (this has been tested). Undermines Taliban support and income. Undermines drug lords. Roughly doubles income of poor to mid-level farmers. Given the choice of high wheat prices and doubled incomes or the repressive Taliban, the Taliban loses.
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Pakistan: Smaller than California with 4 times the population, 175 million.
Pashtun tribe (~27 million) inhabits Pak/Afghan border and beyond. Taliban are almost entirely Pashtun. Most Pakistanis are very moderate Muslims, but the Taliban mix conservative Muslim beliefs with harsher tribal customs.
Al Qaeda (Arab) hides out in Taliban country in Pakistan.
Pakistan has now turned against the Taliban, but the Taliban are far from defeated and play of the class divisions in Pakistan, which are a very real problem, and the Taliban support the poor against the rich.
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Iraq:
This material covers up through early 2008.
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http://zfacts.com/p/1136.html | 01/18/12 07:16 GMT
Modified: Thu, 09 Sep 2010 16:21:06 GMT
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