Trump Weaponizes "Law 'n' Order"

July 4th weekend, when Trump counter-attacked the BLM demonstrators, Biden was ahead in the national presidential polls by 9.6%. Now, three weeks later he’s ahead by only 8.0% (see Nate Silver).

Sure, Trump’s federal agents have behaved outrageously. But the vandals and violent protesters, now mostly White, have spoiled the protests’ image. They claim righteousness. But is it righteous to help Trump? Is it righteous to undo the good work of the vast majority of non-violent protesters?

Biden would lose. Trump may not save himself with this tactic, but if the trend of the last three weeks continues, Biden will have only a half-percent lead on election day (a possibility, not a prediction). And given how the electoral college works, he’d almost certainly lose.

Civil Rights. After nine years of civil rights demonstrations, the historic Civil Rights Act of 1964 was signed into law by LBJ. Those demonstrations worked, totally upsetting the racists. Five months later LBJ won a historic landslide with a 23% margin. After three years of urban violence, Nixon beat the Democrats with his racist Southern strategy. And in 1972, after anti-war and White radical violence, he beat the progressive Democrat George McGovern with a 23% margin.

Trump’s Strategy

“The groundwork is being laid for the next Nazi era, martial law … and the infantry awaits.” My friend was worried two months before Trump was elected.

I too was worried. But I was sure the danger was not so one-sided. Trump could not impose martial law without the unthinking complicity of the left. And even Hitler had to stage the Reichstag fire. So in Sept. 2016, I wrote this reply,

“Trump can’t do that directly. It would take some kind of escalating violence — Trump supporters attack some Democratic protest. Next time, the protesters counter-attack the [Trump] supporters, and back and forth over a year or more.

Trump/Bannon are very smart and they will not move too fast and make it obvious that they are the instigaters. … they would encourage it, and it could get out of hand.

Of course, the real danger is on the right. But the fringe left can do a huge amount of damage by providing excuses. … Longer-term — a few years — I think we are in serious danger.”

What’s happening now? I got the details wrong, but what’s happening now is not so different.

On May 25, a racist cop kills George Floyd, a Black man, for no reason. Good protests erupt but are undermined by right- and left-wing vandalism and violence. That becomes dominated by “the fringe left” that I referred to four years ago.

In Portland, in early June, businesses report losses totaling millions of dollars as a result of vandalism and looting. On June 14, a statue of Thomas Jefferson is toppled and on June 18, George Washington follows. In Seattle’s “Autonomous Zone,” two people are murdered (June 20 & 29) and others shot.

2000 federal agents. On June 30, the Dept. of Homeland Security announces it is sending a federal team to Portland to protect two federal buildings over the Fourth of July weekend. That team consists of 2,000 federal agents (US Marshals, BORTAC agents (a unit of customs and border protection), and a special response team from ICE.) It is assisted by the FBI.

On July 4, Trump warns he will deploy federal law enforcement to protect national monuments after protesters toppled several statues of confederate generals and “spray-painted or otherwise vandalized monuments to national icons like George Washington and Abraham Lincoln [NYT 7/4].”

Over the Fourth of July weekend, a crowd breaks windows at the Portland federal courthouse and explodes fireworks inside the building. Federal agents make arrests.

Since then, federal agents in Portland have escalated their use of disproportionate violence and the use of tear gas. And the demonstrations have, in response, grown in size and violence although the demonstrators’ violence does not match that of the federal agents in military uniforms.

Perhaps Trump will overplay his hand (it could finally happen). But …

As of July 26, violence is continuing to escalate in cities across the nation — exactly according to Trump’s plan.