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Mar 8. Virus Math: The average growth rate, over the last week for new coronavirus cases, is 29% per day. That means that if there were 100 new cases today, there would be 129 tomorrow. At this rate, a month (31 days) from yesterday, 1,250,975 Americans would have been diagnosed with it. And three weeks later, everyone.
The “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918 spread more slowly but killed about 675,000 US citizens when the population was half this size. Worldwide, it killed about 50 million. (Data from NYT. My calculations are here.)
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