Biden vs Trump: Latest Polls
Forecast, Wed., Oct 28, Biden’s chance of winning is now 88%, up 21 points from a low on Aug 31. That’s according to Nate Silver’s graph of Biden vs Trump chance-of-winning. This is not the chance if the election were held today. It’s the chance Biden will win on Nov 3.
This is the first time Biden’s chance has been better than your chance of not killing yourself if you play Russian roulette once.
Silver is the best poll analyst ever. Polls can’t factor in everything but betting markets can take account of those extra factors. The best one gives Joe a 64% chance, but it’s probably less accurate than the polls. So combining the two:
- Biden vs Trump latest: The Democrats have about an 80% chance of winning Nov. 3.
- Biden’s chances will be getting more erratic as we move toward Nov. 3.
- Biden has been stronger lately against the main Republican attack — that Biden is being controlled by the radical-left socialists, who will ruin America. (How dangerous is this?)
Biden vs Trump — Strategy
We can’t change the Republican attack, but we should try to stop our radicals (Defund the Police) and our Berniecrats (“democratic socialists”) from helping Trump. That would help win over some suburbanites, women, and people over 50 as we did in 2018.
Most left radicals don’t contribute to this problem, it’s just the “dark-side” radicals with their purity tests and revolutionary talk. (For more about that see the post on how BLM protest organizers have sided with the looters in Chicago. Also check out the zFacts book, How Democrats Win, below.) He’s also doing OK against Trump & Barr’s law-and-order attack, though he could be stronger on that.
How Left-Radicals Support Trump. The radicals threatened to boycott Biden like they did Clinton if he did not adopt some of their policies. So he included some and they claim he included even more than he did and that they will start “holding him accountable” to them the day after the election. They claim that with their growing numbers in Congress, he will give in.
This completely aligns with Trump’s TV commercials that show Biden as a Trojan horse, bringing Sanders’ radicals into the Capital. Since Biden doesn’t seem like a radical, that’s their main story.
Our radicals are the main reason Trump’s main line of attack is believable.
What happened in 2018? The radicals ran radical candidates and did not flip even one House seat from red to blue. The moderates flipped 43. Radical politics was not popular then. And since then, we’ve had
- CHOP in Seattle,
- 80 days of riots in Portland Oregon,
- Looting in Chicago that some called reparations for slavery,
- Abolish ICE, Defund the Police and Loot it All Back
- Increasing talk of opening the border with Mexico
The radical left is more unpopular than ever with mainstream America. As George Orwell said:
So much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don’t even know that fire is hot.
Ripped Apart
I used to think Nate Silver was brilliant, until he predicted Hillary would win over the disaster of a president we were gifted by the cruel hand of Fate.
Silver doesn’t actually predict. He gives the odds. He gave Clinton a 75% chance. That meant she had a 25% chance of losing. So we should be very worried. I was, and thanks to Nate I was the only one in the room who was not surprised. The guy at Princeton put her chances at 99%.
If you play Russian roulette someone say you have 5-in-6 chance of living and you end up dead, did they predict wrong. No. They were precisely correct. You were just unlucky.