First Flattening of Corona Curve

Mar. 27, 2 am ET: For the last three days it looks like the growth rate of identified cases has slowed from about 32% to about 26%. If so, this will soon register as our first real progress against the virus. I am now optimistic that these predictions will soon prove much too high, but still high enough to completely overwhelm most hospitals.

Also, today’s graph reflects two model changes. First, meta-pollster Nate Silver reports that on average experts now think that only about 10% of cases are being identified by testing. Second there is now enough data on deaths to use that instead of the generic guesstimate that deaths are 1% of all cases (identified or not). The current estimate is 1.5%.