Peak Coal?

Kenneth S. Deffeyes, the best geologist among the peak-oil experts, notes that “the world has at least a 300-year supply of coal.” However, a July 2007 report by the Energy Watch Group, widely cited by some of the more extreme peak-oil proponents, claims that global coal production may peak as early as ten to fifteen years from now.

The group bases its report only on the “assessment of reserve data,” and it defines reserves as coal resources that are “proven” to be producible at current coal prices and with current technology. If we faced a serious coal shortage, the price would increase dramatically, and the definition of reserves would expand dramatically. Coal resources are so vast that no one has attempted to “prove” most coal resources to be coal “reserves.”

Remarkably, the report rules out the United States as a major future coal producer because its coal production peaked nine years ago. The report neglects to note that the price of coal is near a historic low and that coal companies are desperately trying to drum up more business but have run into opposition from environmental groups.