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http://zfacts.com/p/860.html
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Past Peak Oil Predictions
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When Duncan wrote up his Olduvai Theory in 1996 he noted:
"In 1989, I concluded that the life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization is horridly short. This hypothesis was defined in terms of a measurable index, world energy-use per person, and named the "transient-pulse theory of Industrial Civilization." I sketched its maximum point at 1990, followed by a persistent decline (see Note 1). Back then, however, I had no data to support this claim."
As with Heinberg, the conclusion came first, then the "evidence."
According to the US Department of Energy, in 1992 Campbell estimated that total recoverable oil, world wide, was about 1650 billion barrels. He now puts the total at 1900, so in the last 15 years he has discovered enough oil to last the world another nine years at the current rate. In February 2003, Deffeyes said “World oil production may have peaked in the year 2000.” Campbell had been naming that as the peak for quite some time. In January 2004, Deffeyes switched his prediction to 2005, and in April 2004, so did Campbell. Campbell has taken all his old predictions off his web site, but Deffeyes is a real scientist.
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http://zfacts.com/p/860.html | 01/18/12 07:26 GMT
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