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Where Does "156,250 jobs per month" Number Come From?
The 2005 Economic Report of the president predicts basically normal job growth after 2005. Taking the total growth from 2005 to 2009 and dividing by 48 months gives 156,250 jobs per month.
In 2001 they were predicting 181,250 jobs per month for this period. They have not explained their change, but it seems sure part of this is due to increases out-sourcing. If so, 156,250 is not quite keeping up with labor force growth and more workers will be squeezed out of payroll jobs.
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What is the Payroll Survey?
AKA the Current Employment Statistics (CPS) Survey, or the Establishment Survey, it provides monthly employment, hours and earnings statistics based on payroll records of business establishments. Its estimates, e.g. number of payroll jobs (CES0...1) , are more trusted and closeley followed by the media, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve than any others, including estimates based on the Household Survey. • The CES Survey excludes agricultural employment, self-employment, unpaid family and private household workers, and workers absent without pay from their jobs. More info from the BLS.
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What is the Household Survey?
AKA the Current Population Survey (CPS), it is monthly survely of 60,000 households conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the BLS. Its official unemployment rate (LNS140...) recieves the most attention. Its total employment figure includes payroll jobs, agriculture workers, self-employed workers, unpaid family and private household workers, and workers absent without pay from their jobs. Neither the Payroll Survey nor Household Survey includes military personnel. More information from the BLS.
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How does zFacts find the number of non-payroll jobs?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the total employment from the Current Population Survey, and the number of payroll jobs. ZFacts substracts payroll jobs from total employment to find non-payroll jobs. In April 2005 that was 141.1 – 133.3 = 7.8 million non-payroll jobs.
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Does the Payroll Survey Double Count?
In a word, not enough to notice. It is possible for someone to get counted at one job, quick and take a new job and then get counted there in the same month becuase of census timing. The reverse is also possible. A paper by BLS (PDF) explains.
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Where do these graphs come from?
ZFacts uses standard data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (quick links), some data from Economic Reports of the President, and memos from the President's Council of Economic Advisors. The calculations and graphs are made in this spreadsheet.xls.
You are free to use the graphs and spreadsheet under Mozilla Public License 1.1, an open-source licsense.
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http://zfacts.com/p/530.html | 01/18/12 07:27 GMT
Modified: Mon, 17 Apr 2006 18:32:57 GMT
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