July 10, 2009. Data through June. Note the sudden decrease in the peak-to-peak growth of jobs under Bush II. I'm not sure what explains this, but it shocked his economic advisers who predicted a return to the long run trend for the first three years of his administration. Actually the trend growth rate of non-farm jobs (shown here) wast increasing since this data series started in 1939, until Bush took office. I'm sure it's not all his fault, but he should have been more concerned.

In any case, "missing jobs" as calculated here are based on the new trend line established since January 2001.

July 10, 2009. Data through June. This shows how far actual non-farm jobs are below the lower trend line. The rate of job loss is still about 500,000 per month, while the highest rate in the first Bush recession was only 400,000 per month. As Bush left office, the job loss rate (relative to the trend) reached its maximum of just over 800,000 per month.

Just from a visual comparison with past recessions, it looks like we will lose another 3 to 7 million jobs, and not hit bottom for another year or so.

If the economy does not create enough jobs to keep up with the growth of the population and the work force, unemployment will increase. So the trend line is the right benchmark for comparison. And perhaps something closer to the old trend line would tell a more realistic story. I've make this graph as optimistic as possible.