Two myths have clouded our understanding of climate science. Believe the first—that climate science is still too uncertain to serve as a guide for action—and we will do nothing. Believe the second—that the signs of imminent disaster are so obvious that we no longer need science—and we may waste trillions.
Fortunately, an easy solution is at our disposal: Believe the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and believe this chapter’s quote from T. Boone Pickens. They both make sense, and together they provide the clarity we need. The IPCC is the world’s leading scientific authority on global warming, and T. Boone Pickens is a hard-nosed oil billionaire.
Science is cautious. It does not accept the result of one experiment or test but demands cross-checking by many scientists. Consequently, science is slow to reach a firm conclusion, and scientists are prone to say, “It’s probably like so, but we aren’t sure yet.” And that is exactly why we should believe them. Don’t trust those who jump to conclusions or have an ax to grind; they are the mythmakers.
The IPCC tells us that human activity is probably causing most of the global warming but that the IPCC isn’t sure about that yet. They’re scientists. They are only 90 percent sure. That leaves the door open for the first myth—that we don’t know enough to do anything yet. That’s where T. Boone Pickens comes into the picture. He admits the scientific uncertainty but draws the obvious conclusion: If our house is on fire, we should not wait for the scientists to tell us precisely how serious it is before we do something about it. The scientists won’t be completely sure till it’s too late.
In this chapter, I first investigate the sources of the two myths. Then I take a closer look at just what the IPCC has to say and why it makes sense to get moving as soon as possible—which will be none too soon, given the sluggishness of international organizations.
