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How big is the "OPEC gas tax"?
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The OPEC "gas tax" is the combined effect of unrestrained world consumption and the market power of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel.
Oil price forecasts from 2002 — before oil prices began increasing sharply (see graph below) — provide an estimate of the size of the OPEC gas tax. The 2002 forecast (details) by the U.S. Department of Energy predicted oil prices of $28 per barrel in 2008 (after inflation is accounted for), compared to 2008 prices greater than $100 per barrel. That difference — $72 per barrel — is the OPEC tax on crude oil.
Refining costs have to be considered to determine the effect of the OPEC tax on retail gasoline prices. Since these costs increase with oil prices (the cost of energy is a big part of the cost of refining), the most recent markup costs calculated by the Department of Energy provide a good estimate (although not quite as high as up-to-date data would indicate). The most recent forecast for 2008 shows wholesale gasoline costs $0.53/gallon more than crude oil (2005 dollars). That's $0.57/gallon in 2008 dollars.
This markup gives a wholesale price of gasoline for $100/barrel crude oil of $2.95/gallon. The 2002 forecast for the wholesale price of gasoline — in 2008 dollars — is $1.07/gallon. The difference is the OPEC gas tax: $1.88/gallon.
This markup gives a wholesale price of gasoline for $100/barrel crude oil of $2.95/gallon. The 2002 forecast for the wholesale price of gasoline — in 2008 dollars — is $1.07/gallon. The difference is the OPEC gas tax: $1.88/gallon.
U.S. motor gasoline consumption — 9,019,000 barrels/day in the first three months of 2008 — is available here.
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How does this compare with Federal and State gas taxes?
The Federal gas tax is 18.4¢/gallon. State gas taxes — including sales taxes on gasoline — averaged 27.4¢/gallon as of March 2007 (American Petroleum Institute). Thus, combined Federal and State gas taxes are about 46¢/gallon.
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http://zfacts.com/p/992.html | 01/18/12 07:20 GMT
Modified: Thu, 01 May 2008 19:54:27 GMT
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