Peak-Oil Theory is accidentally playing into the hands of Big Oil and is the most climate-destructive force in energy policy. Peak Oil vs Global Warming

Peak-Oil Theory has two parts: (1) cheap oil production will peak and start to decline very soon, if it hasn't already; (2) the peak in oil production will be followed immediately (within five years) by an "earth shattering economic crisis." Cheap oil may well peak very soon, or may have already peaked, but the economic crisis, which will supposedly kill about 4 billion people, is nonsense.

The original theorists were all petroleum geologists. That's why their oil predictions, though unusual, make some sense. The smartest, Princeton geologist Kenneth Deffeyes, says "I emphatically do not understand economics." He's right; he doesn't. All of the peak oil experts hate economics, don't read economics, and don't look at the recent history of the world economy.

In 1979, world oil production peaked (due to OPEC) and declined for six years--faster than the decline predicted by peak-oil theory. World GDP continued to go up the whole time and grew 17% during those six years. The price of oil dropped 66%, and this crushed OPEC for 17 years.

Peak oilers never mention this, but Heinberg, the leading peak-oil author told the 1st US Conference on Peak Oil that "I don't think collapse, in this instance, would necessarily be such a bad thing." This "collapse" involves the "die-off" or, as it is more popularly called, "the cleansing" of 4 billion people — 65 times more than killed in World War II.

Campbell, the leading peaker, hides his past incorrect predictions.
Duncan, an electrical engineer, originally predicted 4 billion dead by 2030.

http://zfacts.com/p/849.html | 01/18/12 07:17 GMT
Modified: Fri, 30 Nov 2007 19:22:56 GMT