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Has World Oil Production Peaked?
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Oil production
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OIL_PRODUCED
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barrels (since page opened)
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Current production rate
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CURRENT_RATE
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barrels/day
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This chart shows recent world oil production figures.
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Oil production hit a new peak — 85,827,000 barrels per day — in February 2008 (revised figures as of June 9). March 2008 – the month for which the most recent data are available – production was slightly lower – 85,730,000 barrels per day. The previous high was 85,665,000 barrels per day in December 2007.
Is this an indication that oil production has peaked? Is the trend unavoidably downhill from this peak, as some geologists have suggested? (See the peak oil discussion here.) Time will tell, but the current trend is UP.
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The peak-oil clock is based on the estimated current world oil production rate, and the recent trend in world oil production.
The trend in world oil production shown in the peak-oil clock is based on smoothing the monthly production figures shown in the chart. "Double-exponential smoothing"  is used, which weights more-recent production figures more heavily than past production figures, and also includes the effect of the recent trend. The smoothing constants, α and γ are each 0.2, which means that the most-recent month oil production has a weight of 0.160, the month before 0.128, the month before that 0.102, and so forth (the weights decline exponentially, but sum to 1.0).
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http://zfacts.com/p/932.html | 01/18/12 07:22 GMT
Modified: Tue, 10 Jun 2008 23:13:49 GMT
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