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http://zfacts.com/p/741.html
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Rising Non-Payroll Employment: The Theories |
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What Else is Driving the Increase in Non-Payroll Employment?
As costs of healthcare and other benefits skyrocket, companies have an increased incentive to keep a small core of full time payroll employees, mechanize labor whenever possible, and outsource to other countries. Second, recent employment growth has been driven by immigrants who may work more often at non-payroll jobs. Third, technology increasingly allows people to be self-employed as consultants and small business owners. It’s important to note that not all non-payroll jobs are bad jobs; working on a social policy website, for instance, isn’t a bad gig.
These theories aren’t in conflict with the one presented by zFacts. What we’re saying is this: look at history; even though there may be other trends towards non-payroll jobs, these trends will be exacerbated by high unemployment and recession as companies cut payroll employment. In the graph below, for instance, non-payroll employment increases when payroll unemployment rises.
Conservative Theories
A recent paper by the conservative Heritage Organization asserts that the Payroll Survey overcounts the number of jobs during economic boom and that it undercounts the dramatic rise in self employment. zFacts analysis of Heritage Organization Research
For more information see:
• Growth in US employment driven by immigrants: Article , Full report (PDF)
• Health care costs and sick job market: Article
• Heritage Organization Criticism of Payroll Survey: (Link to PDF)
• Brief from Economic Policy Institute defending Payroll Survey: (PDF)
• BLS brief on recent trends in the Household & Payroll Surveys: (PDF)
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http://zfacts.com/p/741.html | 01/18/12 07:30 GMT
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