1. How sure? 95% that humans caused at least half the warming since 1950.
- From the UN’s fifth (2014) report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
- Now (2014) 400 ppm(2) parts per million , up from 280 in 1750.
- There is a decent chance the Earth will get 9º F hotter by the 2100.
- Assumes a $30/ton CO2 tax would work after a few years.
- Assumes the environmentalists do not abscond with the revenues.
9. The problem? US and China need to cooperate.
- If they cooperated, it’s almost sure the Europe, Australia, Japan, and India would go along.
10. Why failure? Environmentalists use scare tactics and command & control.
- Of course big oil and coal, are a huge problem, but there is no use hoping they will change and solve the problem. So …
- The biggest mistake has been for the rich countries to try to cap the poor countries.
- The US and Europe tried to cap India at the level of emissions (per person) of the iUS sometime before 1850.
- Contrary to environmentalists, caps are not the only way. Economists don’t even think they are the best form of commitment.
What should be done? (a new plan from the best climate policy minds)
Global warming requires a global solution, and that requires global cooperation. Recently the top three climate economists in the US along with the top German climate economist have aligned on a new approach (they came to this independently). It’s much simpler than the Kyoto approach, and it is designed specifically to encourage cooperation.
They have applied game theory, common sense and even used experiments to determine what type of agreement will lead to cooperation. This is completely new. It turns out that the individual caps everyone has focused would work if everyone cooperated, but they cause disputes and destroy cooperation. This has been confirmed experimentally (and by Kyoto).
International carbon pricing results in a much stronger international treaty because it encourages cooperation. The trick is to agree on one international price of carbon, and then let countries choose a carbon cap and carbon tax or a combination of both. The World Bank is now advocating exactly this. Here’s the full story: carbon-price.com.
What you can do:
- Link this site: carbon-price.com on your blog, website or Facebook page.
- Place the CO2 Widget at the right, on you blog or website — serves as a link.