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June 25, 2008 -
Dan Kirshner
Today's Peak-Oil Forecast: Forecasts will be wrong
Here's Matthew Simmon's chart of World Oil Production, presented in February 2008  .
Lined up below is zFacts' chart from the same data source (from "Has Oil Production Peaked?").
zFacts' chart includes more recent data and revisions – that were available when Simmons said last month, "I bet oil peaked in May 2005... I was very lucky in my timing." He needs to check current data.
His timing was right for a while, and he may still turn out to be right. But so far his forecast – see the dashed line in his chart – doesn't look good.
Peak-oil geological theory is based on known historical declines in oil fields – those are facts. But those historical declines didn't occur while oil prices were topping $130 per barrel as they are today. For more information, read the Carbonomics Peak-Oil chapter. Care to make a forecast?
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June 21, 2008
China Helps Out a Little, Even as it Wrecks the Climate
China just raised gas prices 16%—to $3/gal. That cut $4 from the world price of oil—saving us $30 billion a year. But China's still subsidizing oil, helping OPEC, and wrecking the climate. A new book, Carbonomics tells how to flip this around.
China, by raising gas prices, hurts OPEC but helps us and itself. If we raise gas prices, it hurts OPEC but helps China and us. If we work together we've got an anti-OPEC cartel—and it helps the climate. Why not do it? Because we're afraid to raise gas prices—so we let OPEC and Big Oil take us to the cleaners. Carbonomics: How to fix the climate and charge it to OPEC tells how to raise the price of gas (or carbon), refund all the revenue, so it's not painful, and make it work to cut our addiction to oil. Organize a few other countries and we have a consumers' cartel that can fight OPEC. There's a lot more too it, but start here Charge it to OPEC.
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June 17, 2008
McCain & Bush Favor Off-Shore Drilling to Help China
Strange? Think about it. Our oil imports have been dropping for nearly three years, and China's went up 25% in May from a year ago. Where do you think our oil will go? So why pump American oil for China? Well think who's pushing for it. Big Oil—Exxon and the like. Why is that. Well, Duh! They are making a bloody fortune pumping oil, and they expect that to continue.
McCain made his new position public on Tuesday in—where else—Houston, and Bush came out with his new position the same day. George reversed the position of the Bush family dating back to 1990. Bush & McCain appear to be coordinating their positions.
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June 16, 2008
Big Oil Drilling for Energy Security or Profits?
The Wall St. Journal today reports: "U.S. High oil prices have given legs to Big Oil’s demand for more access to federal lands and coastal areas—a bid for energy security."
Don't be fooled. When Big Oil pumps a barrel of oil, they sell it on the world market at the world price. The only help for the U.S. comes if that lowers the oil price for the whole world. This helps Germany, China, India, etc, just as much as the U.S.
The effect doesn't even start for five or ten years. And remember, If we hadn't pumped out Alaska 20 years ago, we would have it now. Big Oil is just drilling for profits. Read how this works in Carbonomics: The World Oil Market.
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January 30, 2008
The Department of Energy (DOE) Cancels Clean Coal
On Jan. 30, Energy Secretary Bodman pulled the plug on FutureGen, Bush's clean-coal demonstration project. In Feb. 2003, Energy Sect. Abraham had launched the project saying: "DOE will embark upon a $1 billion initiative to design, build and operate the first coal-fired, emissions-free power plant—FutureGen."
In 2006 Bush had said “We're developing clean coal technology. We're spending over $2 billion in a 10-year period.” In fact, the project spent only $40 million over five years before being canceled. That’s what the government spends on Iraq in three hours.
Curiously this comes just two months after Texas lost to Illinois in a bid to become the site of FutureGen. Rumors that the loss caused the cancellation were called "outrageous" by Deputy Sect. Clay Sell, who said he and Bodman learned only last March (2007) that FutureGen's cost had escalated from an original $950 million to $1.8 billion. But Sell was clearly lying, as demonstrated by the fact that Bush knew of the $2 billion dollar cost back in 2006.
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http://zfacts.com/p/1016.html | 09/08/08 16:04 GMT
Modified: Wed, 25 Jun 2008 05:53:29 GMT
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Charge OPEC
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